After the fall of Assad regime… How Syria will be rebuilt?

The United Nations indicated that the cost of rebuilding Syria may reach about $400 billion, despite the fact that, determining this figure accurately is complex, as it depends on in-depth field studies carried out by specialized committees, given the massive destruction of the country’s infrastructure and residential facilities.

The next Syrian government is expected to rely on local sources and international aid to finance the reconstruction process.

Natural resources would play a major role in supporting state revenues and may contribute significantly to stimulating the economy and accelerating the reconstruction process.

Among the main natural resources, Oil is one of Syria’s most important natural resources, with proven reserves estimated at around 2.5 billion barrels according to the US Energy Journal.

However, this sector faces significant challenges, most notably international sanctions, the control of most oil wells by the Syria Democratic Forces (SDF), and the urgent need to rehabilitate the oil sector’s infrastructure.

Meanwhile, it’s currently difficult to set a timetable for optimal exploitation of oil revenues to achieve self-sufficiency.

Another important natural resource is the phosphate, as Syria is one of the largest countries in the world in phosphate reserves, ranking fifth globally, with reserves estimated at about 1.8 billion tons.

Syria used to produce about 3.5 million tons annually, making it one of the largest phosphate producers in the world.

Economists believe that investing in phosphate reserves will be one of the fastest ways to achieve quick financial gains, especially after the Syrian government took control of most of the mines.

Moving from the natural resources, Transit transportation, as Syria enjoys a unique geographical location that makes it a link between the continents of Asia and Europe, and between the markets of the Gulf, Türkiye and the EU countries.

It’s expected that Syria will contribute significantly to international trade route projects such as the Silk Road and the Indian Middle East Road, which will provide it with revenues from the passage of trucks through its territory.

In light of the state of war and chaos in the country during the war years, which exposed Syria to a series of Western sanctions, including freezing assets abroad, whether belonging to the state, or the Assad regime and its followers.

Syria has frozen assets in international banks, including frozen funds in Lebanese banks estimated at between $40-60 billion.

Recovering these funds would be an important source of funding for reconstruction projects, but it would require legal efforts to remove international sanctions.

There are a large number of Syrians who have invested in different countries, such as the Arabian Gulf and Türkiye, and it’s expected that these investments will contribute to the reconstruction process if Syrian investors are encouraged to transfer part of their investments to the interior through tax incentives.

Given the huge cost of reconstruction, an international fund is likely to be set up to raise aid from countries and international organizations. Gulf countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are expected to play a prominent role in financing the reconstruction.

Qatar has provided aid to countries such as Gaza and Lebanon, and it is expected that Qatar will lead the donor countries in the reconstruction of Syria.

Saudi Arabia plays a major role in supporting Syria’s political and economic stability, as it has participated in international conferences on lifting sanctions and supporting reconstruction.

Kuwait is one of the world’s leading donor countries and is expected to provide long-term financial grants to support Syria.

If political and security obstacles are overcome, Arab support will boost the pace of reconstruction in Syria.