The Russian army is making record progress and victories in Ukraine

Russia’s military has made its biggest advance on the front in Ukraine in 2025 since the first year of the war, and is continuing to press hard militarily as a round of negotiations expected on Saturday between Kyiv and its allies aimed at reaching a possible settlement to the conflict.

Security advisers from allied European countries are due to meet with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv on Saturday, with the participation of a US team via videoconference.

According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, about 15 countries have confirmed their participation, along with representatives of the European Union and NATO.

Zelensky met with his US counterpart Donald Trump in Washington in December to discuss the US plan to end the war, but sensitive issues such as territorial ceding remain unresolved.

Moscow has signaled its intention to harden its position after accusing Kyiv of targeting a residence of President Vladimir Putin with drones.

Pending diplomatic progress, Russian forces captured more than 5,600 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2025, more than they did in 2024 and 2023 combined, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which works with the Critical Threats Project (CTB), two US think tanks specializing in conflict studies.

In December, Moscow took control of 244 square kilometers, its lowest monthly advance since March under winter weather conditions, but it has stepped up its offensive in the eastern Donbas region, where Ukraine’s main defenses are located.

The Russian army currently occupies approximately 19.4% of Ukraine’s territory, of which 0.94% was occupied last year.

Amid Russia’s advance, Ukrainian authorities on Friday ordered the evacuation of more than 3,000 children and their parents from about 40 locations in the Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

In his New Year’s speech, Zelensky stressed that the agreement to end the war was “90% ready,” warning that the remaining 10% would determine “the fate of peace”.

But the deal isn’t being negotiated directly at the moment, as the Ukrainians and Russians communicate via the Americans.

Moscow’s adoption of the latest proposed version of the agreement seems unlikely, as it has dropped some of its main demands.

Putin has repeatedly stated in recent weeks that Russia will achieve its goals in Ukraine by military means if negotiations fail, and praised his military’s recent gains on the front.

In Ukraine, Zelensky on Friday selected military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov to run his office, one of the country’s most important positions.

Unlike his predecessor Andrei Yermak, who left office over a corruption scandal, Budanov is a military career known for his daring operations against Russia, which he describes as a terrorist.

The Ukrainian president also announced his intention to replace the current defense minister, Denys Shmyhal, with the minister of digital transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, a relatively new entrant to the world of politics who is only 34 years old.

The first days of 2026 saw Ukrainian and Russian shelling, as Moscow accused on Thursday Ukraine’s military of carrying out a New Year’s Eve drone attack in the occupied territories of the Kherson region, killing 28 civilians, including two children, at a café and hotel.

For its part, Kyiv confirmed that it had targeted a military gathering.

On Friday, Russia shelled central Kharkov, Ukraine’s second-largest city, killing a three-year-old child and wounding 19 others, according to local authorities.

Rubbles and debris covered the streets of Kharkov, where several areas were still in flames, and buildings whose windows were completely shattered.

Russia’s defense ministry denied the accusations, stressing that it hadn’t planned or carried out any strikes with missiles or aerial destructive means within the city limits of Kharkov.

According to Zelensky, Saturday’s meeting with Europeans and Americans is specifically aimed at discussing security guarantees that Ukraine’s allies can provide.

A summit with Western leaders is also scheduled for Tuesday in France.