Three scenarios will determine the future of the oil sector in Syria

Oil is considered one of the most important natural resources in Syria, as it has played a major role in supporting the national economy for decades.

Despite the significant decline in production due to the years of war, the future of this wealth remains a matter of wide interest, as questions are raised about the extent to which oil will continue to be one of the energies and investment resources in Syria.

According to the follow-up of the specialized Energy platform, the changing geopolitical and economic factors, in addition to the challenges facing the oil sector, have made it necessary to estimate the life of the oil reserve in light of current production levels.

Scenario 1: Stabilization of production

In 2023, average daily oil production was around 40,000 barrels.

If Syria continues to produce oil at this rate, the current reserve of 2.5 billion barrels could last for up to 171 years.

Although this scenario seems encouraging in terms of time, it reflects challenges in achieving effective economic benefit from this wealth.

Scenario 2: Return to pre-war levels

Before 2011, Syria was producing around 385,000 barrels per day.

If production returns to this level, the remaining reserve will be sufficient for only 18 years, reflecting the need to search for alternative strategies and reduce dependence on oil as a primary source of energy.

Scenario 3: Average production level

If production continues at the rate of 89,000 barrels per day as it was in 2024, the current reserve will last for approximately 77 years.

But this scenario requires overcoming major challenges, including the destruction of infrastructure, lack of foreign investment, and economic sanctions that hinder the development of the sector.

Conclusion

The future of the oil industry in Syria depends on the government’s ability to attract new investments and repair infrastructure, in addition to taking advantage of modern technologies to increase productivity.

According to Syrian Oil Minister Ghiath Diab, the current production is estimated at only 10,000 barrels per day due to most oil fields being out of state control, but he confirmed that the government is working to improve this situation and return the fields to state control to boost local production.