Washington Times: The US warns of China’s aspirations to expand its economic influence in Syria

China’s initial involvement in post-war Syria reconstruction projects could carry significant security risks, despite Damascus’s growing tendency toward the United States and Saudi Arabia to carry out large-scale, high-cost projects, according to Washington Times.

China’s economic role in Syria has been limited since the fall of Bashar al Assad’s regime, with which it has long cooperated, but it has recently begun taking gradual steps to strengthen its involvement in reconstruction efforts.

China’s GCI Group, which includes 25 companies operating in multiple sectors, opened a new economic office in Lebanon’s Chtoura region this month.

According to the group’s CEO, the office, located less than 80 kilometers from Damascus, will serve as an important logistical and diplomatic hub for Beijing’s activities in Syria, and reflect a pragmatic approach to protecting its existing interests and expanding its economic influence.

Besides seeking lucrative construction contracts inside Syria, the office also aims to facilitate agreements that attract Chinese technology companies to contribute to the development of the country’s critical infrastructure.

Analysts say Chinese tech companies such as Huawei, which have been operating in the region for years largely undisclosed, aspire to play a pivotal role in Damascus’s digital national identity projects, as well as the development of server systems.

But the report warns that these projects could give Beijing broad leverage over Syria’s digital infrastructure, potentially creating serious threats to cybersecurity.

Meanwhile, the report noted that Syria’s investment agreements with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, which include sectors such as real estate, telecommunications, and energy, are still in their early stages.

The delays in the implementation of these projects could open the door to the expansion of China’s economic influence.

According to Ahmed Sharawi, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that Damascus turning to Chinese companies to carry out large-scale infrastructure projects in the near term remains unlikely, as long as the Gulf states stick to their financial commitments.

But if those commitments falter or aren’t implemented as required, China could find a strong opportunity to enter the Syrian market, especially in the areas of infrastructure, energy and port development, where its state-backed companies are highly competitive, he added.

Syria faces enormous challenges in the reconstruction phase after a nearly 15-year war that has caused extensive damage to infrastructure.

The World Bank estimates that the cost of rebuilding could be as low as $216 billion, requiring large outward investment flows.

These large funding needs explain the intense diplomatic activity of interim President Ahmed al Sharaa, who has made multiple visits to Russia and the United States, visiting Washington in November, the first by a Syrian president in decades.

Still, some US lawmakers and security experts remain skeptical about Syria’s stability and the intentions of the current government.

The lifting of US sanctions, which took place about a year after the fall of the former regime, was also tied to conditions related to monitoring Damascus’s commitment to minority rights and counterterrorism, reflecting continued caution within Congress.

The report also noted that recent clashes between Syrian forces and the Kurdish-led Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) are reinforcing Western investors’ concerns about the country’s stability.

Under this Western hesitation, China may find an opportunity to expand the Digital Silk Road Initiative, which is part of the Belt and Road project, and includes exporting technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G networks, and telecommunications infrastructure to developing countries.

Although Syria formally joined the Belt and Road Initiative in 2022 during Assad’s rule, Beijing has yet to launch large-scale infrastructure investments as it has in other regions.

Experts point out that China’s investment strategy in developing countries is often criticized as being seen as based on long-term influence.

Chinese investments in the telecommunications, energy, and transportation sectors of other developing countries have created high levels of dependency, giving Beijing considerable leverage, along with extensive surveillance and data collection capabilities.

The report concluded that these risks could be exacerbated as Damascus seeks postwar stability.