Washington Post: Land for Peace – The US Formula for Ukraine with fuzzy details

Trump is in a hurry to make peace in Ukraine, while some security guarantees and details are still being worked out, according to the article by, David Ignatius.

There is movement, though not yet an agreement, toward the basic land-for-peace formula that will shape any agreement.

Under the US plan, Russia will continue to administer the five regions it occupies, although Ukraine won’t formally cede sovereignty over any of them.

The United States may implicitly recognize Russia’s control of Crimea, but Ukraine won’t.

Security guarantees will also be tampered with, as Ukraine won’t join NATO, but it will retain the text in its constitution declaring this goal.

Russia on the other hand, will accept Ukraine’s right to a “strong security guarantee” from the Europeans after the war, and the document makes no mention of Russia’s longstanding demand for a neutral and demilitarized Ukraine.

One crucial issue is how the United States will assume its role as a guarantor of the ceasefire agreement and the security of Ukraine and its European partners after the war.

According to European officials, US intelligence support to Kyiv is expected to continue in this context.

European countries also want US support if they send troops to Ukraine, but the Europeans don’t yet have a clear guarantee, and without US support, they may not send troops.

At a meeting in London on Wednesday, the Europeans asked the Trump team to make several changes to its plan to address Ukrainian concerns.

These include an explicit acceptance of the possibility of Kyiv one day joining the European Union, a clearer definition of US support for security guarantees, and a clearer demarcation of the ceasefire line between the two sides.

“This is within the realm of negotiation, and with some work, they might be able to move beyond it,” says William B. Taylor Jr., a former US ambassador to Kyiv who was a strong supporter of Ukraine.

The framework for Ukraine appears to contain vague language, like that found in many diplomatic agreements, where each party can twist its language for domestic political purposes.

While the US, European, and Ukrainian militaries view Russia as a source of concern due to its military superiority in terms of troop numbers and equipment, Trump sees Russia as a promising economic opportunity.

To understand the negotiations in Ukraine, it’s useful to identify several curious aspects:

First, there is a division of labor, with the Trump team engaging Russia, while the Europeans bear the responsibility of persuading Ukraine to accept the terms.

Ukraine’s concessions so far have been far greater than Russia’s, and European negotiators warned Trump’s negotiators this week that without greater flexibility from Moscow, Kyiv may back down.

Second, the negotiations are being accompanied by a flurry of social media posts.

Trump, as usual, attacked Zelensky on Wednesday, posting, “We’re very close to a deal, but a man with no cards to negotiate must now get the job done”.

In the same post, Trump asserted that “no one is asking Zelensky to recognize Crimea as Russian territory”.

Zelensky subsequently toned down his previous online attacks on Crimea with an apologetic post in which he said that “temperatures are high” but that negotiations are “bringing peace closer”.

Third, Trump’s hasty and impatient approach to giving diplomatic talks time to prepare.

Trump wants to achieve a ceasefire and discuss details later.

Despite Trump’s threat to withdraw if no agreement is reached, his team is seeking a victory on the Ukraine issue due to the chaos caused by the tariffs bill.

Although Europe will provide post-war security, Trump’s plan also plays into the hands of economic influence through the US role in operating the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which will provide energy to both sides and allow the United States to remain on the front line in southern Ukraine.

In addition, the US will share in the profits from Ukrainian minerals and other natural resources, giving the United States a stake in the post-war peace process.

The challenge facing Trump is how to combine his desire for a ceasefire with providing Ukraine with strong and reliable security guarantees, but he is not there yet, and he is getting closer.