The Washington Post: A small mistake could drag the Middle East into a dangerous escalation

The raging crisis in the Middle East, which began with the beginning of the war on Gaza nearly two months ago, threatens to boil over amid escalating bombing and violence in the region.

It has become clear to everyone that tensions are increasing despite the presence of few indicators indicating a desire among the active elements in the region to wage war.

What is clearest of all is the great reluctance of Iran and its allies to open a front against Israel and its allies since last October 7, when Hamas launched its major attack.

However, experts believe that the sequence of events taking place in the region, and the diversity of the actors in, each of which has different motives, all portend that things will immediately spiral out of control as soon as any small error in the calculations occurs.

Joost Hiltermann, a Middle East expert at the International Crisis Group Organization, says of the diversity of actors in the Middle East, “Any miscalculation, any communication error, or any unintended strike could push toward a massive escalation”.

Just this week, a prominent Hamas leader was assassinated in Beirut, a commander in the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces was assassinated in Baghdad, and last week, a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was assassinated in Damascus.

As for the Red Sea, the Houthis in Yemen continued their threats to prevent any commercial shipping operation there despite America and its allies threatening them with military action against them.

Iran was also subjected to a bombing that killed 95 people last Wednesday, and ISIS claimed responsibility for this bombing, which occurred at a celebration held on the occasion of the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Major General Qassem Soleimani by an American air strike carried out by a march in Iraq in 2020.

Last month, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant announced before a parliamentary committee that Israel was defending itself in a war with multiple arenas that went beyond the borders of Gaza and the West Bank.

He said, “I say it here in all frankness: everyone who works against us has become a potential target, and there is no immunity for anyone in that”.

Here are some of the hotspots of tension in the region:

Lebanon
A prominent Hamas leader was assassinated in a raid that bore all the hallmarks of the assassination that Israel usually carries out, in Beirut last Tuesday.

Saleh al Arouri is considered one of the highest-ranking Hamas commanders who have been targeted since October 7.

Israeli officials have warned of the possibility of targeting Hamas leaders residing in other countries, although Israel has not claimed direct responsibility for al Arouri’s assassination.

This assassination comes amid long-standing speculation that Hezbollah could participate in Hamas’ war against Israel, as since October 7, the party has participated in cross-border attacks targeting Israel.

al Arouri was assassinated in the southern suburb near Beirut, which is considered a stronghold of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, came out and delivered a speech last Wednesday, in which he said that response and punishment were coming for al Arouri’s assassination.

Reem Mumtaz, a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that Hezbollah could be under pressure to respond, but it must also take into account the deteriorating economic situation in Lebanon.

She added, “A large portion of the Lebanese people simply cannot think by fighting another war, given what he is going through now”.

This is a reference to the financial crisis that shook the country and made 82% of its population live in poverty.

Iraq
A leader of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Baghdad was assassinated by an US air strike in the center of the capital last Thursday.

This man, whose name is Mushtaq Talib al Saidi, was the deputy commander of operations in the Baghdad region for the Hezbollah al Nujaba movement, according to the statement issued by the group, which claimed responsibility for a number of attacks that It has targeted US soldiers in Iraq since October 7, as part of a broader wave of recent attacks aimed at forcing the Americans to end their presence in Iraq.

The Hezbollah al Nujaba movement belongs to a coalition of Iranian-backed groups known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, which cooperated with the Iraqi army to defeat ISIS after it took over the country in 2014, and these factions are officially under the command of the Iraqi army.

In a statement issued on Thursday, the official spokesman for the Iraqi army, Yahya Rasoul, announced that the international coalition forces headed by the United States bear responsibility for an unprovoked attack against an Iraqi security entity, and that this attack amounts to aggression and a blatant violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and security.

Currently, 2,500 US soldiers are still present in Iraq, as the Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa al Sudani, announced that the US presence is necessary to work to prevent ISIS from returning to control areas in Iraq.

It’s noteworthy that the Popular Mobilization Forces factions were behind more than a hundred attacks targeting US forces in Iraq since October 17, according to what was reported by the United States, which spoke of a major escalation that led to the emergence of rounds of retaliation.

Syria
Israel has repeatedly bombed Syria since October 7, which is why the Israeli army announced last Tuesday that it had bombed military infrastructure belonging to the Syrian army in response to a missile fired towards Israel.

Last December, the official Iranian media announced the killing of Sayyed Radhi Mousavi, a senior official with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, in a raid in the Sayyida Zeinab area of ​​Damascus.

Regarding the assassination of Mousavi, the media reported that he was a colleague of Soleimani, an Iranian military commander who gained the title of martyr following his assassination at the hands of the United States.

Soleimani headed the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, which carried out military operations in various parts of the world.

Randa Slim, director of the Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program at the Middle East Institute, believes that the assassination of Mousavi represents a stronger blow than the assassination of al Arouri, for Hezbollah and Iran.

Therefore, officials in Iran pledged to avenge the assassination of Mousavi, as Hossein Akbari, Iran’s ambassador to Syria, announced that Israel would receive, “a response to this crime at the appropriate time and place”.

Yemen and the Red Sea
The Houthi “Ansar Allah” in Yemen carried out numerous attacks targeting commercial ships as they crossed the Red Sea, and last Wednesday, they announced that they had targeted a ship carrying the flag of Malta and claimed that it was heading to Israel.

Repeated attacks on this essential trade route have caused some of the world’s most important shipping companies to avoid passing through the Bab al Mandab Strait, which is close to Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.

In response to the blocking of the trade route, the United States and its allies launched an international initiative called the “Guardian of Prosperity Coalition”.

It’s noteworthy that US Navy ships clashed with Houthi forces, sinking three of their boats during one operation that took place last Sunday, according to what the Pentagon announced.

In a statement posted on social media on Tuesday, the Houthis warned, “Any American aggression won’t go unanswered”.

The Houthis have also fired long-range missiles at Israel since October 7, and announced that they will continue targeting Israel until it stops its aggression on Gaza.

However, Israeli air defenses intercepted most of the missiles.

Iran
As for Iran which was affected by the violence that took place on its soil this week, as two bombings rocked the city of Kerman on Wednesday, killing at least 95 people.

They were visiting Soleimani’s birthplace to commemorate his death.

This attack wasn’t linked to Israel or the United States, but to another dangerous regional enemy, namely ISIS, which claimed responsibility for the two bombings in a message published on social media on Thursday.

According to Joost Hiltermann, “ISIS hates Iran more than it hates Israel”.

So far, Israel hasn’t directly struck Iran since October 7, although officials in Israel have hinted at the possibility of doing so if the conflict expands, while analysts believe that Iran is unlikely to back down from its support for Hamas and other regional allies.

Any event like this won’t lead to war in itself, but with the increase of these assassinations, one after another, things will move towards a situation where someone might say: Let everything go to hell! After that, we will be afflicted with a great war.