Business Insider: Ukraine should treat the US aid package as the last

The Business Insider website, posted an article by, Ella Sherman regarding the relationship between military aid to Ukraine and its relationship with politics, especially in light of the upcoming presidential elections and changing political positions.

War experts advise Ukraine to use the latest US aid package worth about $61 billion with caution, as there is always the possibility that US aid could be derailed again for political reasons.

“Each battle over an ensuing increase has become increasingly contentious and drawn out, and I believe the plan “It should be ‘what if there is no more money”.

During a panel discussion on defense priorities on Wednesday, experts such as Kelly Greco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, commented that everyone involved in this conflict should treat this aid package as if it were their last, and plan accordingly, because this… “It may be painful”.

The US presidential elections are coming, and the Republican candidate may be less supportive of Ukraine, in addition to the ongoing division in discussing security aid to Ukraine between the political parties in Congress, which may complicate the passage of any future aid to Ukraine, which hasn’t yet been proposed, but it’s certain that it will be presented as the war continues.

Kavanagh continues, “It’s uncertain who will take over the presidency in January, and there is certainly no appetite to start the January 2025 battle now”.

With the US aid just approved, some conflict analysts say Ukraine’s next steps to make the most of the new aid should include building defenses and exploring the possibility of negotiating with Russia.

“I believe Ukraine is capable of winning this war… It cannot win militarily in any way, but it can win politically,” Greco said.

She added, “Ukraine can actually achieve a political victory by not allowing Putin to achieve his main goal of subjugating Ukraine,” noting that “Ukraine can remain a viable state and an independent state from Russia”.

Both Greco and Kavanagh stressed the importance of Ukraine coming to the negotiating table and using diplomacy with Russia to prevent further loss of territory.

Other experts, in addition to Ukrainian officials, criticize calls for any negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and say that Vladimir Putin will demand the demilitarization of Ukraine in order to benefit from this.

Experts from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report issued in March that they continue to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin is maintaining his ultimate goals in Ukraine, which amount to a complete surrender to Ukraine and the West, and that Russia has no appetite for good faith negotiations with Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War challenges the idea that the war is unwinnable for Ukraine, calling it a Russian media operation.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said, however, that Russia cannot be trusted, and claims that the reality has proven documented failures to rise to the level of previous negotiations.

Kuleba recalled a statement he made on social media last November, in which he said that Putin was a habitual liar and that no one seriously expects the Ukrainians to negotiate with Russia.

The challenge here is that 6 months of aid delays have put Ukraine in a difficult position, a situation that may not be immediately corrected by incoming aid.

During the panel discussion last Wednesday, Kavanagh suggested that starting negotiations would also save time for Ukraine, as approved US aid is expected not to flow all at once.

She said, “The truth is that politics has a role, which means that things won’t be perfect, and there will be delays”.