Axios: Is a confrontation between America and China over Taiwan imminent?

US officials and advisers close to President Donald Trump have warned that the outcome of the recent summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping could increase the likelihood of Chinese action against Taiwan within the next five years, at a time when Washington appears less clear in its defense commitment to the island, which is a vital hub for the global semiconductor and artificial intelligence industry.

Axios exclusively reported that some of Trump’s advisors came away from the Beijing summit with a disturbing impression, expressing their fear that China might invade Taiwan within the next five years, potentially depriving American companies of the supply of electronic chips used to power artificial intelligence technologies.

According to the report, one of Trump’s advisors warned that the United States isn’t economically prepared to face a potential disruption in the supply chains of electronic chips, on which American technology companies and the artificial intelligence industry depend.

According to the report, Trump was impressed by the warm reception he received during his visit to Beijing, but the real concern, according to his aides, is the possibility that Beijing might interpret Trump’s positions as an opportunity to expand its influence at the expense of Taiwan.

In the same context, John Bolton, the former US National Security Advisor, published an article in The Telegraph in which he warned that Trump was “playing a dangerous game over Taiwan” by treating US arms sales to it as a “bargaining chip” with China.

Bolton noted that Xi Jinping opened his meetings with Trump by emphasizing that the Taiwan issue is the most sensitive issue between the two countries, warning that it could lead to conflict if not properly addressed.

After the summit concluded, Trump stated that US arms sales to Taiwan represented an excellent bargaining chip, which Bolton considered a fundamental shift in traditional US policy.

Bolton asserts that the “Taiwan Relations Act,” passed by Congress in 1979, obliges Washington to provide the island with the means of defense it needs to maintain its ability to protect itself, arguing that any retreat from this commitment could be interpreted in Beijing as a green light to escalate military and political pressure on Taiwan.

Bolton also recalled the so-called “Six Guarantees” that former US President Ronald Reagan gave to Taiwan in 1982, including not setting a deadline for ending arms sales and not negotiating with Beijing regarding those sales.

However, Trump, according to Bolton, treated those historic understandings with disdain when he said, “The 1980s are a long way off”.

Bolton argues that Trump’s policy contradicts the principle of “peace through strength,” which previous Republican administrations adopted to deter adversaries.

Instead of strengthening deterrence, using the issue of arming Taiwan as a bargaining chip could convince China that Washington won’t respond forcefully if Beijing imposes a blockade on the island or escalates military action against it.

Bolton’s concerns echo those of an Axios report regarding the potentially enormous economic impact of any conflict over Taiwan.

The island is the heart of the advanced semiconductor industry, and any disruption there could directly threaten the global economy and American technology companies.

The two articles also point out that the concern isn’t limited to Taiwan alone, but extends to US allies in Asia and Africa, who are now wondering whether Washington is still committed to defending its traditional partners, or whether those commitments have become mere bargaining chips in Trump’s political calculations.

While Trump hasn’t officially announced any change in US policy toward Taiwan, critics argue that even ambiguity or hints about the possibility of making concessions to Beijing could weaken US deterrence and encourage China to test the limits of US power in the Indo-Pacific.

The two articles conclude that the coming weeks may reveal more about the nature of the understandings between Trump and Xi, but the growing concern within Washington is that any signs of weakness or compromise regarding Taiwan could lead to a serious international crisis that extends beyond the island itself and affects the future of the entire global balance.