Haaretz: It appears that the Iranian nuclear project hasn’t been completely destroyed?
An Israeli military analyst said on Friday that Iran’s nuclear project “hasn’t been completely destroyed,” despite the “extensive material damage” that Israeli claims it inflicted on nuclear facilities during its aggression against Tehran.
“In practice, Israel’s confidence in the results relates to some of the sites that were bombed, but not all of them,” according to Haaretz analyst Amos Harel, referring to Israel’s announcements of attacks on Iran.
He continued, “Israel’s optimism about the results stems from estimates of the cumulative damage, which extends beyond the sites and centrifuges, but also includes the assassination of senior scientists who were working on the nuclear project”.
Harel added, “Regarding the US bombing of Iran’s Fordo uranium enrichment facility, there isn’t enough information available yet”.
He stressed, “There is no doubt that the material damage to all Iranian nuclear sites is severe, but it’s also clear that the project hasn’t been completely destroyed,” he said.
He explained, “First, more information is needed to conduct a thorough analysis, and second, there are softer issues related to the mood surrounding Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei”.
He added, “Israel and the United States don’t know for certain what happened to the 408 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, and it’s difficult for them to assess whether the failure of the war would prompt Khamenei to order his scientists and generals to cross the final red line and conduct an experiment in a primitive nuclear facility”.
Harel continued, “There are still other problematic scenarios, including Tehran’s return to the negotiating table, as part of its stubborn policy of procrastination and lies”.
The Israeli analyst suggested that Trump would likely lose interest in the nuclear issue, declare victory, and move on.
He believes that part of Israel’s achievement lies in its success in attacking the Iranian regime’s main targets, on which hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent over the past few decades: the nuclear project, missiles, and regional influence.
He said, “It will be difficult to maintain air control over Iran during a ceasefire, but 12 days of attacks have proven that the air route to Iran is open, and that the regime currently lacks the ability to defend itself”.
He added, “Perhaps its inability will encourage Iranian citizens to challenge it later… However, Tehran hasn’t completely lost its ability to launch missiles against Israel”.
According to the Israeli army, “The Iranians still possess approximately 100 launchers and hundreds of long-range missiles, and one of the first things the regime will attempt to repair is its ballistic missile production lines”.
