Analyzing Erdogan-Assad potential meeting

At a time when Syrian silence prevails at the official level, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still renewing his call to meet President Bashar al Assad, amid question marks about the reason for Ankara’s insistence on the meeting and Damascus’ delay in agreeing.

Turkish officials made many statements regarding their desire to meet Assad, the latest of which was what President Erdogan said that he offered Russian President Vladimir Putin the idea of ​​holding a tripartite meeting with the Syrian president, and stressed that the steps he is taking regarding the normalization of relations with Syria come within the framework of Türkiye’s national interests.

For his part, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said on Friday, that Moscow looks very positively at the Turkish president’s idea of ​​holding a meeting of the leaders of Türkiye, Syria and the Russian Federation.

Bogdanov added, “We’re now in contact with Syrian friends”.

Erdogan’s desire collides with the statement of a member of the decision-making body and the central implementation of the ruling AKP in Türkiye, Orhan Miri Oglu, last week to Russian Sputnik news agency, in which he confirmed that Damascus rejected Ankara’s request regarding arranging a meeting between the Turkish and Syrian presidents, indicating that Syria intends to Postponing such a meeting until after the Turkish presidential elections scheduled for June 2023.

There’s no doubt of the Turkish need for reconciliation with Syria, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan government announced more than once the desire to meet the Syrian President, and they asked Russia to mediate to hold a tripartite summit, and this strong Turkish desire It was met with Syrian silence at the official level.

For past couple of years, during the peak of the war in Syria, Türkiye found itself facing number of threats to its national security.

The first is a threat is from the southern boarders, because of the Syria Democratic Forces (SDF), with the fact of the failure of Ankara to resolve this issue through its NATO ally, the United States, who had forces on the ground and keep on supporting the Kurdish forces as they considered by Ankara as terrorists.

Erdogan realizes that communication with Russia and Syria is the solution.

The second threat, is in the Turkish elections, especially in light of the opposition’s connection there with the Syrian government, and this connection is what troubles the Turkish president, as he’s trying to strike this alliance, by calling for reconciliation, so that he can benefit from the votes of those who are calling for the return of relations between the two countries”.

The 11 years of crisis between Assad and Erdogan, made things difficult for both leaders, each one due to his one stand.

The Syrian believes that, after 11 years of war, it’s not acceptable to hold a political meeting without actual moves on the ground.

The Syrian leadership doesn’t trust Erdogan’s statements, and they expressed that, he must prove his good intentions.

Erdogan need to make an urgent steps which must be taken in order to gain the trust of Damascus, the most important of which is ending the Turkish army presence on the Syrian territories, and dismantling terrorist groups, and stopping the Turkish support provided to them, considering that without these steps, Damascus cannot accept.

The Turkish government is trying to achieve some kind of rapprochement with the Syrian government, which may cannot be called a “a full reconciliation”, as it requires great conditions that cannot be achieved quickly, and this rapprochement also carries a number of requirements and conditions for the two countries, which are difficult to achieve, at least for the time being.

Erdogan’s haste to meet Assad comes in light of the lack of time before the presidential and parliamentary elections in Türkiye, and the strong position of the Turkish opposition, so he seeks to work on several domestic and foreign measures, and to make economic and security promises to the Turkish people, in order to guaranteed his reelection.

One of the major issues is the more than 4 million Syrian refugees in Türkiye, and they constitute – according to Turkish citizens – pressure on the economy of Ankara, and the people there aren’t satisfied with their presence and are calling for their deportation, and whoever stands on this side won’t present his vote to Erdogan, and will vote for any party whose electoral campaign includes this point.

Erdogan is trying to win votes, and make promises to return the Syrian refugees, their lands in a symbolic way, before the elections.

This is among the conditions set by Türkiye in order to restore relations with the Syrian government, in addition to other issues such as activating the constitution-drafting committee, and reconciliation between the opposition and the Syrian government, which are all very complicated issues, especially with the known Syrian government stand that cannot accept them.

One the other hand, the Syrian government also sets its own conditions.

The first and most important one is Turkish Army withdrawal from the Syrian territories under control.

Also, handing over of senior Syrian opponents in Türkiye.

Without these, the Syrian government isn’t ready to offer a reward to Erdogan without anything in return.

The potential meeting between Assad and Erdogan at the present time isn’t possible, especially since Syria isn’t in a hurry as long as Turkish government is still supporting the Syrian opposition and Turkish soldiers “occupying” parts of Syria.

The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Turkish government are keen on normalization with Syrian President Bashar al Assad, and therefore they are committed to holding a meeting with him at the earliest opportunity.

In regard of upcoming Turkish elections, Erdogan’s ruling AKP facing a decline in the votes, for many reasons, so he’s on the hurry to reach for certain reconciliation with Damascus.

This reconciliation agreement with Assad, could solve one of the major issues, which is sending the Syrian refugees back, and this alone can bring the votes of Turkish citizens for his party in the upcoming elections.

There is a popular anger in Türkiye against Erdogan, and if the opposition wins, the problem will be solved in the first place, but if he wins, he needs direct communication with Damascus in order to resolve these differences, so he insists on it.

The Russian role in this subject might be the game changer, as the Russian President’s Special Representative to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, had announced earlier that Moscow is working to prepare for a meeting between the Syrian President and his Turkish counterpart.

Lavrentiev said in press interview, “Türkiye should consider this meeting, as We believe that such a meeting will be positive and beneficial in general, and we are working in this direction”.

According to Lavrentiev, the possibility of holding a meeting of presidents in Russia is always available, and Moscow supports that.