Yedioth Ahronoth: The next earthquake will destroy infrastructure and will kill hundreds!
At a time when Israel is busy facing escalating security and military challenges on various fronts, the earthquake that recently struck the Dead Sea region came as a reminder of another danger that is no less threatening, but more silent and has an impact that will pose more threat to Israel>
Although the earthquake caused little material damage, it brought to the fore a very serious question that the government avoids: How would the country react if it faced a large-scale devastating earthquake?
Colonel Talia Lankari, a former head of the Israeli National Security Council and a member of the Deborah Security Forum, described the recent earthquake as a miraculous survival, saying that what happened was not a real test of the state’s capabilities, but an early warning.
The fundamental question isn’t how to deal with an earthquake with a magnitude of 4.2, but what would have happened if it reached 7.5, a scenario that the competent authorities describe as possible in the region.
In an article published in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Lankari explained that an earthquake of this magnitude could, according to various estimates, cause hundreds of deaths, widespread national paralysis, the collapse of thousands of buildings, the disruption of transportation networks, and the loss of control over critical infrastructure, in light of the continuous failure to implement plans to strengthen buildings and facilities at risk.
She added that her experience in emergency management, and her previous involvement in the development of models for managing national crises, revealed a large gap between the supposed scenarios and the actual preparations on the ground, as a result of what she described as chronic administrative negligence.
She considered that the refusal to form independent commissions of inquiry after major failures, such as the October 7 attack or the management of the Covid-19 crisis, reflects the lack of institutional learning, and confirms that mistakes are likely to be repeated.
Lankari warned that a country that refuses to review its failures professionally and impartially is doomed to reproduce them more dangerously.
The expected response at the moment of disaster will be, as usual, the appointment of a new official or the creation of a formal position with a striking name, in an attempt to deceive the public of control, while real powers remain absent, which portends chaos at a moment when every second is decisive.
She stressed that emergency management requires a clear government structure based on three basic pillars that aren’t currently available.
The first is the establishment of a permanent national crisis management headquarters with full legal authority, capable of mobilizing resources and imposing unified priorities on ministries during emergencies.
Second, the adoption of management based on clear reference scenarios, including significant investments in risk reduction and mitigation, from securing hazardous installations to ensuring the continuity of critical systems.
The third pillar, according to Lankari, is to establish a culture of inquiry and learning, and to turn professional recommendations into binding implementation plans, rather than leaving them hostage to political calculations.
She considered that the Dead Sea earthquake was a quiet alarm bell amid the noise of crises, reminding that natural and security disasters don’t await investigative committees or political consensus.
Lankari concluded her article by issuing a warning that the scenario of hundreds of victims and state paralysis isn’t a pessimistic scenario, but rather a logical result of the state of neglect and the absence of an administrative structure capable of managing crises.
She added that the country recently received a free ultimatum, but ignoring it could mean that in the next earthquake, there will be no one left to ask questions.
