The New York Times: Venezuela is now Trump’s political king

Thomas Friedman wrote an article in the New York Times, warning of the far-reaching consequences of this action, arguing that this step, no matter how decisive or popular it may seem to some Venezuelans, puts Washington in front of a heavy historical responsibility that cannot be avoided.

“It’s too early to get clear answers to what will happen next in Venezuela following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro by the administration of US President Donald Maduro in preparation for his trial in the United States, but I have a lot of questions based on such interventions by the United States in other regions”.

Friedman drew on historical comparisons, most notably the Western intervention in Libya in 2011, when Muammar Gaddafi’s regime was toppled by air power alone, without a coherent plan for managing the post-fall phase.

The result, according to the article, has been sustained chaos, political division, and militia wars, which have made Libya a fragile state and a source of regional instability and irregular migration, and the author fears that the same dynamic will be repeated in Venezuela if the United States only decapitates the regime without a realistic vision of building a stable alternative regime.

Friedman recalled an article he had written at the time, in which he said, “I don’t know Libya, but my instinct tells me that any kind of decent outcome there will require troops on the ground, either as military assistance to the rebels to topple Gaddafi as we want, or as post-Gaddafi peacekeepers and arbitrators between tribes and factions to help with any transition to democracy… They cannot be our forces; we cannot afford them at all”.

In Friedman’s estimation, Trump’s own remarks at his press conference on Saturday reflect an implicit recognition of the seriousness of the blitzkrieg in international politics, as the president spoke of his country’s readiness to administer Venezuela directly, and not to rule out the presence of troops on the ground.

Is the Trump administration, with its improvisational approach and heterogeneous structure, actually able to manage a massive state-building project, the largest since the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan?

The Trump administration, with its improvisational approach and heterogeneous structure, is actually capable of managing a massive state-building project, the largest since the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Maduro, despite his fall, has left behind an armed network of loyalists, smugglers and drug cartels, which foreshadows an internal conflict that could take the form of a full-scale collapse or a regional explosion, similar to the models seen in the Middle East.

Friedman warns of a worsening Venezuelan refugee crisis, already one of the largest in the world, and could further destabilize Latin American and Caribbean countries.

The concern isn’t limited to Venezuela, but extends to the international arena, as the kidnapping of the head of a sovereign state from his capital, without UN cover, as the article put it, may set a dangerous precedent by other major powers, led by China, in their regional conflicts, especially towards Taiwan.

The kidnapping of a sovereign head of state from its capital, without UN cover, may use a dangerous precedent by other major powers, led by China, in their regional conflicts, especially towards Taiwan.

Friedman also believes that Washington’s preoccupation with Venezuela will give Moscow and Beijing a wider margin for maneuver in Ukraine and Asia.

The problem of oil and debt also stands out, as China is the main importer of Venezuelan oil, which threatens any future conflict there with direct friction with Beijing’s major economic interests.

Friedman concludes his article by referring to his famous rule that he formulated before the invasion of Iraq: “If you break it, you are responsible for it”.

In his view, Venezuela is now Trump’s “political king” in terms of responsibility, not control.

If the United States succeeds in helping Venezuelans build a better system, it will be a historic achievement for Trump.

If the country descends into deeper chaos, Trump’s name will remain attached to that mess for many years, according to Friedman’s analysis.

Maduro was brought to the United States on Saturday evening local time after being arrested by US forces during a military operation in the capital, Caracas, and is expected to appear in federal court in Manhattan, New York City, tomorrow (Monday).