Axios: Gaza’s uncertain future is the most prominent issue of the Trump-Netanyahu meeting

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with his ally Donald Trump in the United States on Monday for talks focused on the future of a ceasefire deal in the Gaza Strip in what appears to be a pending transition to its second phase.

During this visit, Netanyahu’s fifth visit to the United States this year, the two leaders are expected to discuss a wide range of regional issues, including Iran, talks on a security agreement between Israel and Syria, a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the next phases of the Gaza agreement.

The visit comes as the Trump administration and regional mediators seek to move on to the second phase of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip reached in October.

But the ceasefire is marred by violations, with both sides of the conflict accusing each other of violating it, while mediators fear that both Israel and Hamas are procrastinating.

The second phase of the agreement provides for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from their current positions in Gaza, the handover of the administration of the Strip to Hamas by an interim authority, and the deployment of an international stabilization force.

According to the White House, Trump is scheduled to receive Netanyahu at 13:00 (18:00 GMT) at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, where the US president is spending the holidays.

The ceasefire agreement that ended two years of devastating war in the Gaza Strip after Hamas’s attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, was one of Trump’s most notable successes in the first year of his second term.

But progress has been slow in moving to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, although the Trump administration wants to move forward with it.

US envoy Steve Witkoff and President Jared Kushner’s son-in-law, representatives of Qatar, Egypt and Türkiye, the mediators in resolving the dispute, met in Miami in December.

Israel and Hamas have been accusing each other of violating the agreement.

Before negotiations begin on the transition to the second phase, Israel is demanding the return of the body of the last hostage held in Gaza, however, Hamas says it hasn’t yet been able to find them.

Israeli peace activist Gershon Baskin, who has been involved in informal negotiations with Hamas, said the timing of the meeting was very important with regard to Gaza.

“The first phase is practically over, there is only one Israeli hostage left, and they (Hamas) are having a hard time finding him,” he said.

“The second phase has to begin, there is already a delay, and I think the Americans realize that it’s too late because Hamas has had a great opportunity to re-establish its presence, and this is certainly not a situation that the Americans want to continue”.

Axios quoted White House officials as saying that Washington wants to declare an interim Palestinian technocratic administration in Gaza and an international stabilization force as soon as possible.

According to the same source, Donald Trump wants to form a peace council to oversee this transitional government during the Davos forum in January in Switzerland.

Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East expert at the Chatham House think tank in London, said there are more indications that the administration is frustrated with Netanyahu.

“The question is what will they do about it, because the second phase is stagnant at the moment,” he said.

As the Trump administration is keen to make progress in Gaza, analysts say the prospect of Iran rebuilding its nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities is likely to be at the top of Netanyahu’s agenda.

In June, Israel launched raids on Iranian military and nuclear sites as well as residential areas.

Iran responded by launching drone and missile strikes on Israel, and later in the 12-day war, the United States joined Israel and bombed Iranian nuclear facilities.

In an interview published on Saturday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was facing an all-out war waged by the United States, Israel and the Europeans.

Mekelberg also suggested that Netanyahu may be trying to divert attention from Gaza to Iran.

“As Israel enters an election year, Netanyahu will take a defensive approach during his meeting with Trump to reduce what could be a burden on him when he returns home,” Mekelberg added, stressing that everything the Israeli prime minister does is aimed at keeping him in power.