The Guardian: Can Erdogan forge a new friendship with Trump?

If Türkiye’s powerful president clashes with Israel over Syria, he could take the blame for wrecking Trump’s plans to pacify and withdraw from the region and his political future could depend on it, Paul Taylor writes in The Guardian.

For more than two decades, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has successfully walked a fine line between the West, Russia, and China.

Türkiye has benefited from the help of various parties in Russia’s war on Ukraine, expanded its military influence in Syria, Libya, the South Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Gulf, projected its soft power into Africa, Central Asia, and the Western Balkans, and developed a strong national defense industry.

When international relations experts analyze Türkiye’s policy, they often use the term balancing act, while Turkish analysts prefer to talk about strategic autonomy, the ability to defend the country’s interests without relying on external powers.

Despite Erdogan’s strong relationship with Trump during his first term, a series of disagreements and misunderstandings have deepened mistrust between Türkiye and the United States.

According to Aaron Stein, president of the American Foreign Policy Research Institute, “Erdogan isn’t afraid of the Oval Office,” noting that the relationship between the two countries is unstable, but remains within the framework of NATO.

Under Trump’s first term, the United States kicked Türkiye out of the F-35 fighter jet program after Ankara bought an advanced Russian S-400 air defense system.

Erdogan also accused Washington of supporting Fethullah Gülen, a Turkish preacher based in the United States who he blamed for the failed 2016 coup attempt.

Thus, with Gülen’s recent death, one source of tension between the two countries has disappeared.

At one point, Trump publicly threatened to destroy the Turkish economy if Erdogan sent troops into Syria to attack US-backed Kurdish forces, which Ankara views as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, Türkiye’s archenemy.

However, Erdogan was among the leaders who enthusiastically congratulated Trump after his election victory, while Trump called the Turkish leader a friend and praised Türkiye’s role in Syria.

But relations between the two countries haven’t warmed under the Biden administration, while Trump has continued to communicate with Erdogan.

Türkiye, a strategic country of 85 million people, controls access to the Black Sea and is a major regional power with influence stretching from Central Asia to Africa and the Arab world.

Despite refusing to join Western sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine war and trying to join the BRICS group, Türkiye remains a member of NATO and a perennial, if unlikely, candidate for EU membership.

US and Turkish experts see an opportunity to resolve the dispute over Russia’s S-400 system, which could involve securing Russian equipment stored at Türkiye’s Incirlik air base in exchange for lifting US sanctions and selling Türkiye F-35s.

However, Ankara may not be eager to return to the program after developing its own fighter jets.

The United States and Türkiye could also cooperate more closely in Syria, where relations have been strained over US support for the Syria Democratic Forces (SDF), which Türkiye views as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

According to Aaron Stein, the US-Kurdish alliance is the ultimate sin in the eyes of the Turks.

At the same time, Trump tried in his first term to withdraw US forces from Syria as part of his policy of moving away from forever wars in the Middle East, but his efforts failed.

On the economic front, Türkiye has heeded warnings from the US Treasury Department to limit the activities of banks suspected of helping Russian businessmen transfer money and facilitate trade with Moscow.

However, Turkish-Russian trade has nearly tripled since the start of the war in Ukraine, despite a decline in Russian tourism.

At the same time, Türkiye has continued to supply weapons to Ukraine, including drones that have proven effective in the war.

Some Turkish analysts speculate that Erdogan may offer to mediate between Trump and Putin, but a former Turkish diplomat doubts Putin’s willingness to give Türkiye a mediating role after the tensions in Syria.

On the other hand, Erdogan’s full-throated support for Hamas and the Palestinian resistance, as well as his sharp criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, could lead to a confrontation with the pro-Israel Trump administration.

However, Erdogan was on the verge of restoring relations with Israel before the Hamas attack in October 2023 and the violent Israeli military response to Gaza.

Despite Türkiye’s severing of formal trade ties with Israel, Azerbaijani oil continues to flow to Israel through Turkish ports, and trade with Palestine has increased by 2,400%, according to Turkish statistics. In addition, secret talks were held between Turkish and Israeli security officials last November.

Western-educated pragmatic advisers, such as Ibrahim Kalin and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, are believed to dominate Erdogan’s entourage, while hardline nationalist military and political advisers have been sidelined.

The biggest threat to US-Turkish relations is the possibility of a direct confrontation between Türkiye and Israel in Syria, where they have become neighbors in the security vacuum left by the Assad regime.

Some Israeli politicians and academics speak of Türkiye as a potential threat, while some Turkish military planners fear that Israel, in cooperation with Kurdish fighters, could become a threat to Türkiye.

Any clash between Türkiye and Israel could wreck Trump’s plans to calm the Middle East and withdraw from it.

Erdogan, however, seems pragmatic enough to avoid going that far.