The Guardian: How Biden’s fatal mistake turned the Ukraine war into a global disaster
US President Joe Biden’s strategy, inspired by his long experience in foreign policy and the Cold War, was aimed at containing the conflict, but after 30 months, this strategy has failed miserably, leading to great suffering and massive geopolitical shifts.
In an article by Simon Tisdall, he noted that Biden, in March 2022, a month after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, drew a red line for Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning him not to move on any inch of NATO territory.
He pledged that the Western allies would provide military and economic support to Ukraine and implement severe sanctions on Russia, including a weakening of the Russian ruble, stressing that Washington would help Kiev confront Russia without entering into a direct confrontation with Moscow, unless a NATO country was attacked.
Although a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia has so far been avoided, some attacks have hit Polish and Romanian territory, and Putin claims that the West is waging an indirect war against Russia and is threatening to use nuclear weapons, especially in light of the escalating tensions in the Black Sea.
According to Tisdall, the crisis has contributed to divisions within NATO and between the United States and Europe, particularly over military support for Ukraine and its acceptance into the alliance, as well as the idea of a separate European defense identity.
One of the most significant shifts that came as a result of the failure of this strategy is the deepening of the partnership between China and Russia, with Chinese President Xi Jinping getting cheap Russian oil, while Putin gets technology and diplomatic support from China.
At the recent BRICS summit, countries such as Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Venezuela joined the organization, in addition to Türkiye, which is a member of NATO, reinforcing Putin’s idea of a global alliance against the West, while Xi seeks to build a new world order led by China.
On the other hand, the war in Ukraine is fueling extremist currents in international politics, with support for pro-Putin populist leaders growing.
In Moldova, the recent elections were affected by Russian interference, while Moscow is looking to the upcoming elections in Georgia to ensure the defeat of pro-Western parties.
At the same time, the war has diverted attention from other serious conflicts such as those in Sudan and Myanmar, and attacks on Ukrainian grain exports have led to food shortages and price hikes in poor countries, as well as increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Tisdall wondered to what extent these repercussions could have been avoided, noting that Biden was explicit in his warnings to Putin before the invasion, but he should have made clear that any invasion would lead to a direct confrontation with the more powerful and armed NATO.
