Foreign Affairs: Putin will never surrender
The Foreign Affairs magazine published an article by Peter Schroeder in which he discusses Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence on achieving his goals in Ukraine, explaining the reasons that prompted him to wage war.
Two and a half years after the start of the Russian operation in Ukraine, the US strategy remains consistent: imposing significant costs on Russia to force Putin to end the conflict.
Washington is trying to strike a balance between supporting Ukraine and punishing Russia, while minimizing the risk of escalation.
Although this approach seems rational, it’s based on the incorrect assumption that Putin can change his mind.
The evidence suggests that Putin is sticking to his guns, and that preventing Ukraine from becoming a Western base for threatening Russia is a strategic necessity.
Putin considers the conflict personal and will not back down easily, no matter the cost.
The only solution to end the war on terms acceptable to the West and Ukraine, according to Schroeder, is to wait for Putin to leave power.
Accordingly, the United States should maintain its support for Ukraine, continue to impose sanctions on Russia, and reduce the level of fighting until Putin leaves the political scene.
At the same time, the writer wondered how willing Putin was to stop the war.
Some policymakers in Washington believe that Putin might withdraw under sufficient pressure, but Schroeder points out that this belief is based on a mistaken assumption that Putin is acting opportunistically.
In fact, Putin doesn’t treat Ukraine as an opportunistic opportunity, but as part of a preventive war aimed at preventing future threats to Russia.
From Putin’s perspective, Ukraine was moving toward an alliance with the West and NATO, something he saw as a threat to Russia’s internal and external security.
Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in 2022, and then mobilize more forces when the initial attack fails, shows how committed he is to this war.
Despite the high costs, Putin believes the costs of inaction will be greater, as he fears that Ukraine will become a base for Western interventions that will destabilize Russia itself.
According to Schroeder, Western pressure is unlikely to change Putin’s position or force him to end the war on terms that satisfy Kiev and Washington.
