Bloomberg: Trump’s tariffs are a compelling tax to be paid by Americans not foreigners
The tariffs imposed by the administration of US President Donald Trump are no longer just a pressure tool in trade disputes, but have become, according to a recent economic study, a direct burden on the US consumer.
While these tariffs have been promoted as a way to force trading partners to bear the cost, the data reveals that their actual course has ended within the US economy itself.
The study, quoted by Bloomberg, provides a rigorous numerical reading showing how fees have gone from being a bargaining chip to an undeclared consumption tax.
The findings open a broader debate about the effectiveness of protectionist policies, and the limits of their ability to reshape international trade without internal repercussions.
It also highlights the gap between political discourse and economic reality, especially when policies are measured by their impact on prices, incomes, and domestic demand.
A study by the Kiel Institute for the Global Economy concluded that US tariffs are paid almost entirely by US importers, their domestic customers, and ultimately consumers.
According to the study, foreign companies bear only about 4% of the total burden, compared to 96% of near-total transfers to buyers within the United States.
The researchers assert that US importers are the first link in bearing the duties, before the cost passes through supply chains to manufacturers and retailers, and then to the end consumer.
In practice, this mechanism means that the fees don’t stop at the customs gate, but penetrate into the daily prices.
The study argues that this pattern has been consistent across most of the sectors covered, suggesting systematic economic behavior rather than exceptional cases.
The end result, according to the report, is that the US market is borne the brunt of a policy that is theoretically designed to target abroad.
The Kiel Institute researchers describe tariffs as not acting as a tax on foreign producers, but as a consumption tax on Americans, in a direct description of the nature of the economic impact.
The report notes that foreign exporters haven’t reduced their prices significantly in response to US tariff increases.
The figures show that the increase in customs revenues, which amounted to about $200 billion, actually represents $200 billion that has been deducted from American businesses and households.
According to the study, this amount didn’t come from external price concessions, but from rising costs within the US economy itself.
Faced with this reality, manufacturers and retailers are faced with two options: either pass the cost on to the consumer by raising prices, or absorb it at the expense of profit margins.
In both cases, the final effect remains internal, far from the stated goal of the policy.
The study focused on the cases of Brazil and India; whose exports were targeted by high US tariffs last year.
In Brazil, after a 50% fee came into effect, exporters were found to be not significantly reduced in dollars.
India recorded a similar pattern, initially facing a 25% fee before later raising it to 50%, without a significant price cut.
The researchers explain this by the ability of exporters to redirect their goods to alternative markets.
“Adjustment occurs through declining trade volumes, not price concessions,” the study explains, adding that exporters prefer to maintain margins even if volumes shrink.
The cost of the fees is thus transferred from the outside to the inside, while the nominal price at the exporter remains almost constant, and only the map of trade flows changes.
