What will be the consequences of the Biden-Netanyahu dispute?

The closeness of the administration of US President Joe Biden to leading the war on Gaza is clearly evident in the full adoption of the Israeli narrative, describing what happened as terrorism, bringing aircraft carriers to the region, sending military aid, supplying equipment, and sending an elite group of rapid intervention forces, in addition to about the presence of the US President, his Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and the Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, in the meetings of the Israeli War Cabinet, and permanently affirming what was called “Israel’s right to defend itself,” and that there is no ceasefire unless its goals are achieved, which are eliminating Hamas movement, and freeing Israeli hostages.

Washington intervened in amending the composition of the Israeli government, by forcing Netanyahu to form a War cabinet with the leader of the opposition Israeli National Unity Party, former General Benny Gantz, in addition to the former army commander from Gantz’s party, Gadi Eisenkot, and the Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, as observers.

This position wasn’t for the sake of Netanyahu, nor his government, steeped in extremism and armed with right-wing extremists, such as: Smotrich and Ben Gvir.

Rather, the period leading up to October 7 was full of disagreements between the Biden administration and the occupation government against the backdrop of judicial amendments pushed by the Israeli government, which wasn’t only the subject of disagreement and division in the Israeli street, but also harmed the image of the Israeli “democracy” in the West, and made it a hostage in the hands of extremists.

This, in addition to the increasing intensity of the dispute between the two sides; Due to the intensification of settlement practices in the West Bank, and the effort to pass legislation that restricts Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, including seeking to approve the death penalty against them, and restricting visits and other rights, while the Biden administration saw that Israel’s escalation of its measures against the Palestinians, through an extremist government will lead to a dangerous escalation in the Palestinian territories, leading to the return of the United States to the region.

To address the repercussions of this, and it may lead to restlessness among its Arab allies in the region.

But what happened on October 7 caused a major defeat and an existential threat to Israel, causing strategic damage to the position that Israel holds as an advanced bulwark of the West, led by the United States, thus endangering US interests in the region and negatively affecting its influence.

It seems that the United States has realized the depth of Israel’s intelligence, security and military failure, which resulted in the success of the Palestinians in capturing about 250 Israelis.

It also believed that leaving an extremist government – including Ben Gvir and Smotrich – to take a reckless military decision to storm Gaza out of revenge – could cause a second setback for the occupation forces, and thus cause severe harm to US interests.

Washington intended to prevent Iran and its arms from participating in the battle, to support the Palestinian resistance, by sending direct threats to Iran and Hezbollah not to participate in the war.

Because it doesn’t want to get involved in a regional war in the region that will distract it from its strategic directions in containing China and the Ukrainian war.

The US administration also considers that expanding the scope of the war may expose its ally to another strategic shock, which would shake the confidence of its traditional allies in it.

Although the Biden administration expressed its refusal to displace the Palestinians, this came after Egypt and Jordan rejected these plans, and the continued steadfastness of the Palestinians and their refusal to leave their country.

While the Biden administration provided the entity’s government with unprecedented support – including adopting false narratives against the resistance, such as: beheading children and raping women – this enabled it to launch an ethnic cleansing campaign in the north of the Gaza Strip, and then in its south, which included targeting civilians, hospitals and schools.

With the aim of depriving the resistance of its popular incubator, and practicing a scorched earth policy, this war, which continues until now, has caused the martyrdom of about 19,000 Palestinians.

The United States turned blind eyes to the horrible massacres committed by Israel against Palestinian civilians, and even adopted its false narratives regarding the Baptist Hospital massacre and the storming of al Shifa Hospital.

Although the Biden administration expressed its refusal to displace the Palestinians, this came after Egypt and Jordan rejected these plans, and the continued steadfastness of the Palestinians and their refusal to leave their country.

More than 70 days after the war, Israel hasn’t been able to achieve the two goals it announced, and continues to repeat in different expressions: eliminating Hamas and freeing the hostages.

The Israeli army was unable to achieve a true image of victory over the Palestinians factions, which showed legendary steadfastness and succeeded in conveying images of confronting occupation and abusing its soldiers in the Gaza Strip, despite its ability to occupy parts of it.

The image of terrorism and ISIS narrative that Israel and its supporters tried to promote about the Palestinians turned to the opposite, as the images of the dead and wounded by Israeli warplanes bombs, and the images of devastation and destruction in buildings, institutions and hospitals, showed the true face of Israel.

This image was reinforced by social media, while the images of the outstanding resistance of Palestinian fighters inspired the peoples of the world.

The resistance during the period of humanitarian truces presented an honorable humanitarian image that refuted the narratives of the occupation and the US administration about the brutality and terrorism of the Palestinian fighters.

The issue didn’t stop there, but rather, the brutal image of the Israeli aggression directly affected the US administration, which faced protests in its State Department against the complete bias of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, while opinion polls witnessed a decline in Biden’s approval rating in front of his rival Donald Trump on the threshold of the US elections, as it appeared Biden as a supporter of a campaign of ethnic cleansing and ongoing massacres carried out by Israel, and reported by the US and international media.

Although the United States used its Veto – against a draft Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire – Britain abstained from voting, while the rest of the Security Council members, including France, agreed to it, which indicates the beginning of the restlessness of the coalition that supported the war on Gaza, and the weakness of control. American on it.

The continuation of the massacres has put the Arab countries friendly to Washington in extreme embarrassment before their people, threatening them and endangering US interests.

This is what Biden expressed regarding “real fears in various parts of the world that America will lose its moral position, because of our support for Israel”.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also considered that Israel risks suffering a “strategic defeat” if it continues to cause heavy casualties among civilians.

With the fear of the possibility of matters spiraling into a regional war, and the development of the regional scene with the Houthis targeting ships passing through the Red Sea towards Israel, Washington has come to realize that the price it’s paying for its unconditional support for Netanyahu and the extremist government has become large and unbearable, especially with Israel not presenting any vision, until after the war, as Washington demands.

The Biden administration was forced to express positions that showed – in public – discrepancies with the extremist Israeli government, which had existed since the beginning of the war.

The US administration realizes that Netanyahu seeks to prolong the war, because he knows that he will fall once it is over; For accusing him of failing to anticipate the October 7 attacks, and even accusing him of preoccupying the entity with judicial amendments, and not paying attention to the threat posed by Hamas, in addition to the previous charges of corruption against him, let alone if this was coupled with a failure to achieve the two goals of the war that he announced.

From these backgrounds came the US President’s statements that Israel had begun to lose the support of the international community with its indiscriminate bombing of Gaza, which claimed the lives of thousands of Palestinian civilians, considering that Netanyahu needs to change and strengthen his government, which he described as the most extreme in Israel’s history, and that it doesn’t want a two-state solution, and that this He puts at stake what he called “the safety of the Jewish people”.

However, Biden adhered to the position of rejecting the ceasefire, considering that it allows Hamas to rearrange its situation in the battle, while continuing to seek a temporary humanitarian truce, with the aim of bringing in aid and removing hostages.

The Biden’s administration has determined that Israel will move from the current, most intense phase, to the least intense phase as quickly as possible, and many US and Israeli sources have spoken that the period available for Israel doesn’t exceed the beginning of next year.

In the face of this US pressure, it wasn’t necessary for Israel to adhere to the US deadlines.

They announced that the current phase of intensive operations would be followed by another phase focusing on targeting the Hamas leadership, which may extend for a full year, which received US approval.

However, the Israeli War Cabinet announced their desire to maintain buffer zones in the Gaza Strip during the next year, which the Biden administration didn’t oppose, despite its repeated talk of rejecting the continuation of the Israeli occupation of Gaza!

To throw ashes into the eyes, the Biden administration urged to be precise in using bombs in bombing operations to reduce casualties among civilians, which is something that the Israeli War Cabinet hasn’t dealt with so far, and it’s not known whether it will adhere to it in the next stage, in light of the continued occupation of the Gaza Strip and the waging of war on the Palestinian factions in Gaza Strip.

The US administration talks about rejecting displacement and expanding the entry of aid and fuel into the Gaza Strip, but the occupation army is still practicing the policy of pushing the Palestinians towards specific areas in the south of the Gaza Strip, rationing the entry of aid, and restricting its access to its north.

It also talks about controlling the practices of settlers in the West Bank, which are sponsored by the extremist’s ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir.

It’s expected that the Biden administration’s disagreements with Netanyahu will continue, as he continues to fail to achieve progress on the ground, but he continues to broadcast messages to the Israeli public that he is the most powerful prime minister in Israel’s history who rejects external pressures.

There is a dispute with the Netanyahu government about the day after the war.

The Biden administration demands reform and revitalization of the Palestinian Authority and prepare it to rule Gaza after Hamas, while establishing communication between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, However, the Netanyahu government rejects this, and doesn’t want communication between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and therefore it’s not known how the Biden administration will deal.

Biden retreated from the issue of the two-state solution, when he said, that he still believes in the two-state solution, but in light of the October 7 attack, this has become far-fetched, which confirms that he is subject to the mood and position of Israeli government, and that his talk about a Palestinian state is a deception and a joke on the chin, and the Israeli vision of self-rule for the Palestinians is what will prevail in any political settlement process.

This shows that despite the US administration’s opposition to some of the occupation’s policies, it hasn’t and won’t exert real pressure on it to retract them, unless US interests are exposed to danger, or real internal pressure occurs that forces it to oblige Israel to a specific position.

This approach doesn’t relate to current US administration only, but is a general approach for all US administrations to come.

Meanwhile, it’s expected that the Biden administration’s disagreements with Netanyahu will continue, as he continues to fail to achieve progress on the ground, but he continues to broadcast messages to the Israeli public that he is the most powerful prime minister in Israel’s history who rejects external pressures, including his statement, “We’ll continue the war and international pressure won’t stop us”.

This is in response to Biden’s recent statements.

It’s true that Biden’s request to Netanyahu to change his government is, in fact, his desire for him to leave the government as well, but as long as this war continues, talk about changing this government remains premature, unless there are political or field developments that push for that.

In conclusion, the US and Israeli arrangements alone won’t determine the fate and future of the war, and will remain merely a wish – it doesn’t appear from the reality so far, and the steadfastness of the Palestinians and its continued infliction of losses on Israel – that it has a great chance of success.

Thus, a political equation won’t be formulated in the Gaza Strip, at least until the end of the war.