What is the real Russian army tactics in Ukraine? Is it exhausting Ukraine or resolve the war?
The Russian-Ukrainian war is moving into its second year without a clear vision for a political solution that would put an end to the conflict, which has had political and economic repercussions in multiple regions around the world.
At the beginning of 2024, the military tactics, weapons and equipment used in the conflict witnessed major changes, as hot battles in Ukraine continued throughout 2023, with attacks and defenses exchanged between the two sides, and tens of thousands of losses were incurred, but they did not achieve any strategic progress that would make one stand out over the other.
At the beginning of 2024, the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, announced major changes in combat tactics and the type of weapons used, stressing the Russian army’s intention to deal with the weapons provided to Ukraine by the allies, and reduce their effectiveness, and warning the West of the consequences of providing support to Kiev and threatening that they would be a legitimate target for Russian forces.
On the other hand, Moscow provides an explanation for the Ukrainian counterattack last year, considering that the plans for it were dependent on achieving the success of the Ukrainian armed forces, and its specialized units were supposed to carry out painful and final strikes against the Russian forces, and despite the Ukrainian forces using their last precautions from ammunition, the Ukrainian attack didn’t achieve the desired success, as it ended before it began, and this despite expectations of the use of innovative defensive means.
According to military expert Viktor Litovkin, the new tactic that relies on directing large-scale missile strikes, which leads to excessive consumption of anti-aircraft missiles and missiles.
He stresses that Russian forces are currently using missiles launched by thermal balloons, which constitutes a new challenge, as these balloons are being used to distract other missile systems, this could lead to a significant ammunition shortage for Ukrainian forces if massive missile attacks continue.
The “Horseshoe” strategy represents a tactical plan that allows the Russian forces to retreat in an orderly manner, away from the pressure of the Ukrainian forces, before the Ukrainian forces are trapped in what can be described as a “cauldron,” resulting from artillery and aviation fire.
Litovkin focuses on the uniqueness and objectivity of the Russian Army’s tactics, dealing with each case individually, taking into account the type of air defense available to Ukrainian forces on each front and taking into account weather conditions.
The tactic of missiles equipped with heat traps was first used at the end of 2023, when the Ukrainian Lvov tank manufacturing plant was attacked, the results of which were described as revealing a noticeable state of confusion in the response of the Ukrainian mobile air defense system.
In light of what is considered the failure of the Ukrainian counterattack, Russian observers draw bleak conclusions for Kiev, as they see that Ukraine’s main problem lies in its disproportionate military superiority, as it doesn’t have sufficient strength to penetrate the Russian defenses, and despite the support of Western allies, they don’t contribute to sufficiently supplying Ukraine with modern equipment.
The new Russian tactics aim to impose continuous pressure on the Ukrainians, through strong and precise strikes on energy facilities and military infrastructure in Ukraine.
This aims to prevent Kiev from restoring energy capabilities and maintaining military equipment, and to complicate the transfer of equipment and reserves to Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Ukraine meanwhile, is following British special forces tactics in some areas, where small groups of 3 to 5 individuals are sent to approach Russian positions and carry out attacks before quickly withdrawing.
The Ukrainian forces often use the three-group tactic, which includes an attack force and two to distract attention, and the total number of operations in this manner has reached 10 per day.
This shows the challenge faced by the Russian forces in determining the locations of these groups and dealing with them effectively.
Faced with a severe shortage of missiles, the Ukrainian leadership may return to defensive tactics in cities, noting that this will happen if large-scale US military aid doesn’t resume, and if the Ukrainian armed forces face an ammunition shortage.
