The National Interest magazine said that Iran is now on the verge to become a nuclear state, as the White House is beginning to accept this reality.
It has become clear recently that there is a broader effort to motivate Iran to slow down the pace of its uranium enrichment program and reduce tensions in the Middle East.
The goal of this is to build informal understandings with Iran by setting the US red lines and clearly easing the impact of the sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports instead of negotiating a formal agreement, which would be subject to the Iranian Nuclear Agreement Review Law. By US Congress.
According to the National Interest, this approach won’t receive much public support from the political class in Washington from both the Democratic and Republican parties.
However, in the absence of better alternatives, this approach is an opportunity for the Biden administration to limit the escalation of the crisis with Iran and counter Saudi Arabia’s moves to raise oil prices, both of which could undermine Biden’s bid for re-election in 2024.
The results of these efforts on the Iranian nuclear path are still modest so far, and it’s clear that Iran ordered its “agents” in Iraq and Saudi Arabia to stop their repeated attacks on US soldiers deployed there.
While Iran still opposes the US presence in these two countries, and may decide to back away from this step, it currently removes another source of friction that could escalate into a crisis.
The Biden administration has so far remained silent regarding its indirect discussions with Iran, and hasn’t recognized any deal linking Iran’s abstention from uranium enrichment and its cessation of attacks by its “agents” to the clear US tolerance regarding the implementation of sanctions.
However, it’s unlikely that the Biden administration will urge Iran to retreat from its nuclear program to a level close to the restrictions imposed on it under the joint action plan.
Iran is on the verge of becoming a nuclear state, “a situation that cannot be changed forever, even if a military conflict breaks out”.
