Haaretz: If Israel strikes Hezbollah… Iran will intervene
The Israeli Haaretz newspaper said in an article that “If Israel hits Hezbollah, Iran will intervene, and so America will get involved in the conflict”.
Since October 7, last year, the main concern of the United States has been to prevent the expansion of the Gaza war in the region.
Despite the gradual escalation of the low-intensity war between Israel and Hezbollah, it’s not yet a full-fledged war, and here Washington believes that the concept of connected vessels is what governs the course of the situation in the region.
In simpler words, “escalation in Gaza means escalation in Lebanon,” and conversely, de-escalation in Gaza means de-escalation in Lebanon.
Only then can diplomatic efforts resolve the outstanding issues between Israel and Lebanon.
Israel hasn’t only rejected the theory of connected vessels, but has justified escalation with Hezbollah as logical to protect its security.
According to the article, Hezbollah has weakened Israeli deterrence and turned the balance of power upside down, while at the same time considers that Israel and Hezbollah pretend to control the level of escalation, and each assumes that the other side will be careful not to turn the scales and start an all-out war.
The Israelis who consider Hezbollah to have been deterred as the same geniuses who considered that Hamas was deterred before the seventh of October.
At the same level, the article argues that these are the same arrogance as those who call on Israel to strike Hezbollah one final blow.
The article doesn’t argue whether or not to launch a military operation, but rather calls for caution before any unwise decision at this sensitive stage, and defines madness.
“Madness has done the same thing over and over again and expected different results”.
Thus, the erroneous assumption is that any escalation in Lebanon is considered containable or of limited duration, but nothing guarantees that Iran won’t be involved, either intentionally or through miscalculation, and this is where the United States could be militarily dragged into the conflict.
This isn’t only a negative regional development with far-reaching consequences outside the region, but also a conflict that Biden certainly doesn’t need less than five months before the November elections.
