German Institute of Economics: Germany will lose money if Trump return to Presidency  


The results of a study conducted by the German Institute of Economics in Cologne indicated that former US President Donald Trump assuming a new term would cause economic losses estimated at billions of euros in Germany.

Trump has threatened, if re-elected, to impose customs duties of 60% or more on Chinese products, in addition to imposing fixed customs duties of 10% on goods imported into the United States.

According to the study, over the course of a four-year presidential term, this could cause economic losses amounting to more than 120 billion Euros for the German economy.

The institute added that this value will rise if China responds to this measure by increasing customs on imported American goods, noting that such a trade conflict will affect global trade, as exports in Germany and private investments will decrease, which will harm Germany and the European Union more severely than the reality damage in the United States.

The institute stated that according to the most conservative scenario, which relies on China not responding with similar measures, the German gross domestic product will record a contraction of 1.2% in 2028, compared to its performance in the absence of these additional customs duties.

As a result, the institute’s experts recommended taking advantage of the time available until the start of a potential new Trump presidency to conclude more agreements with the United States in the field of steel and vital raw materials.

The institute believed that the threat of countermeasures could help in an emergency, and noted that the European Union needs, in addition, to conclude more free trade agreements with several countries, such as Australia, the countries of the Common Market in South America (Mercosur), Indonesia, and India.

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