Foreign Policy: The US conflict with China would be disastrous
The Foreign Policy magazine stated in an article that the United States needs to talk about the dangers of war with China, as the conflict with it would be disastrous.
The Foreign Policy’s article added that the United States’ recent attempt to make war shows the problem of dealing with military action as just another political option, but war is different, and it must be limited to really vital interests and existential threats to the United States itself, and the situation in Taipei doesn’t represent this concern.”
There appears to be widespread recognition that US intervention is possible, if not probable, although some Chinese officials hope to intimidate Washington from intervening on the island.
In the context, that the assumptions that the United States will win any conflict are reckless assumptions at best, as geography strongly opposes the US forces operating thousands of miles from home, while the Chinese can use many military bases on the mainland.
The People’s Republic of China could control the island by air and threaten to sink any US naval forces, while the support of the allies is uncertain, despite the relatively hardline statements from Seoul and Tokyo.
The United States has lost the majority of war games mounted to simulate the Taiwan conflict, and the most optimistic results, including a series recently run by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), find the cost of victory too high.
In the war simulation, the United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of service personnel.
Also, Taiwan witnessed the destruction of its economy, in addition to the high losses that damaged the global standing of the United States for many years.
As a visualization of the direction that any possible war between Beijing and Washington will take.
The Chinese amphibious attack will be difficult, but fewer measures, such as a blockade, will be possible, which poses greater political challenges for Washington.
According to the Foreign Policy, the United States may find itself in a confrontation that may escalate depending on the circumstances, but escalation will be a permanent threat, as Washington cannot ignore the bases of the mainland, but striking them will almost force Beijing to expand the war.
In this context, the Foreign Policy noted, never have two major conventional powers fought a large-scale war while possessing nuclear weapons.
According to the Foreign Policy, “the defeat of China may be politically destabilizing, but it is unlikely that it will bring to power a peaceful and pro-Western liberal regime, but rather the emergence of a more nationalist regime that will start arming for a second round, like Germany after the First World War”.
The Foreign Policy concluded the article by saying that “The catastrophic cost of conflict makes war prevention all the more important… Accordingly, it’s necessary to intensify diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement between China, the United States and Taiwan to step back, reduce the temperature, and maintain the status quo”.
“The US policy makers need to have a serious conversation with the American people about the possibility of a conflict over Taiwan, as war with China won’t be a proverbial cakewalk, or even the kind of devastating failure that the United States suffered in Iraq and Afghanistan”.
“The conflict with China will be disastrous, and may end the nation if attempts to reduce escalation fail, and sending more US forces to Taiwan would be risky”.
“By supporting Taiwan, the United States risks further harming the relationship with China and impeding its ability to advance American interests on a wide range of other issues, such as arms control and climate change”.