Can the US lead international maritime coalition stop Houthi attacks?

The United States established what it called the “Guardian of Prosperity,” meaning the international maritime coalition, and its purpose is to stop Houthi attacks on ships heading to Israel.

Since the war in Gaza started, the Houthis in Yemen announced targeting ships owned by Israel and then ships heading to or from Israel.

They seized a ship owned by an Israeli businessman and targeted other ships.

The US led coalition, called Operation Prosperity Guardian, will include 10 countries: Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Seychelles, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the initiative yesterday, Monday, and then, Tuesday, he held a virtual ministerial meeting with 43 ministers from countries allied with the United States about what he describes as the threat posed by the Houthis.

Austin said that the Bahrain-based Task Force 153, which was formed in 2022 to focus on security.

The naval forces in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden will be a platform for the existing multilateral force that can be used to deter attacks.

Senior Houthi official, Mohammed al Bukhaiti, responded by writing on the “No matter what sacrifices it costs us”.

The Houthi naval attacks have highlighted broader anger across the Middle East over the Israeli attack on Gaza.

At least 12 shipping companies stopped crossing through the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks.

They include some of the world’s largest companies such as Denmark’s AP Moller-Maersk, Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, Italian-Swiss Mediterranean Shipping Company, France’s CMA CGM, MSC, Euronav and Evergreen Group.

The strait of Bab al Mandab, the narrow waterway that separates Eritrea and Djibouti in the Horn of Africa from Yemen in the Arabian Peninsula, passes through more than 17,000 ships every year.

It’s less than 20 kilometers (12 miles) wide, which is much narrower than the northern parts of the Red Sea, which are more than 200 kilometers (124 miles) wide.

Nearly 10% of the world’s total maritime oil trade passes through the Red Sea, which connects to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.

Without access to the Red Sea Route, many ships would have to make a much longer and more expensive journey around Africa to reach their destinations.

Most of the projectiles were intercepted or failed by Israeli and American defenses due to the distance of about 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) between the two countries.

So, the Houthis changed their tactics, focusing instead on ships near their shores.

They have launched missiles and attack drones at commercial ships they believe are linked to Israel and seized a ship last month that they are still holding in a Yemeni port.

They also likely appreciate that the United States and its regional partners are keen to avoid escalating the war in Gaza into an all-out regional war.

Mohammed al Bukhaiti, a member of the ruling council of the Ansar Allah movement (the Houthis), told the Washington Post, “Participating in a coalition to protect the perpetrators of genocide is a disgrace in the history of the participating countries”.

He added, “If America had moved in the right direction, it would have forced Israel to stop its crimes without the need to expand the scope of the conflict”.

Mohammed Abdul Salam, a Houthi spokesman, said in a statement on Tuesday that most commercial ships would not be targeted, and added, “We reaffirm the safety of sea routes in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, and ensure that there is no threat to ships from any country, except for those linked to it of the enemy entity or heading to its ports,” referring to Israel.

It’s expected that some countries participating in the international maritime coalition called the Guardian of Prosperity will conduct joint patrols in the southern parts of the Red Sea, the Bab al Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden, while other countries will support the force by providing intelligence, and some member states’ task force has warships in the Red Sea.

The United States has already deployed two warships, USS Carney and USS Mason, to the Red Sea, which intercepted 14 drone strikes last Saturday.

The idea of ​​the Guardian of Prosperity coalition is for the warships of the coalition countries to act as a deterrent to Houthi attacks and stop them when possible.

Even before the announcement of the alliance, US warships were carrying out this mission, as did France.

It seems that the alliance won’t add much to the already existing American capabilities, but aims to give a form of international legitimacy to the US effort to protect Israeli navigation, and the United States seemed to aspire to obtain Arab legitimacy also through the accession of Egypt and Saudi Arabia in particular.

The warships won’t necessarily accompany commercial ships through the Red Sea, but will be on standby to respond to attacks.

The operation to detain the ship “Galaxy Leader”, partly owned by the Israeli businessman, Abraham “Rami” Ungar, which took place on November 19, 2023, took place when Houthi fighters landed by helicopter on the ship.

But the presence of military ships belonging to the Guardian of Prosperity coalition nearby may make repeating such a step more difficult for the Houthis.

The task force’s warships can also shoot down missiles coming from Yemen, and so far US ships appear to have intercepted most or a significant percentage of the drones and missiles fired by the Houthis towards ships and Israel.

However, even Israel’s much-touted Iron Dome missile defense system doesn’t have a 100% track record of stopping incoming missiles.

The Houthis raining down a large number of missiles on ships may mean that even a small percentage of them may reach some ships, and even if they only hit one or two ships and not a large number of ships, this may raise insurance rates and may lead to the reluctance of ships to cross the Red Sea.

At this point, markets appear unconvinced that the task force will be able to protect shipments through the Red Sea.

Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company said on Tuesday that it was rerouting its ships around Africa to avoid sending them through the Bab al Mandab Strait, although it welcomed the announcement of the establishment of a working group called Guardians of Prosperity.

Maersk company expressed her hope that it would provide the opportunity to return to transit through the Red Sea region in the near future.

However, at this time it’s still difficult to determine exactly when that will happen, Maersk said.